January 12th Recap and 13th Predictions
What to Expect in the Analysis Below
With the eight trading day of January completed, let us see how the day played out and what to expect tomorrow.
Above you will see the full view of the Daily chart; Top and Bottom indicators included.
As always, we will start by analyzing the Top Half of the Daily chart; seeing how our horizontal Support and Resistance Lines played out during the day, reviewing the Moving Averages that came into play as well as comparing previous candles
From there, we will analyze the Bottom Half of the Daily chart to see what the momentum looks like going into tomorrow with the additional MACD and RSI indicators.
Ultimately, we will use the combined data to help predict the movement of the S&P-500 for tomorrow.
Top Half Analysis
Taking a look at today’s candle, we see the dreidel-looking candle that popped up 4 trading days ago - this time it is red instead of green. We mentioned in the past that this dreidel-looking candle is always a sign on uncertainty.
This will play out more in the Hourly Chart Analysis below, but the long wicks above and below the candle show that there were moments the S&P-500 wanted to take off as well as crash.
From there, it is extremely positive to see the daily candle close above the 8 Moving average line in green. More so, we actually closed above the 20 Moving Average line in orange. Both of these are great signs!
On yesterday’s predictions of today we asked for another day of confirmation. Though this was not as definitive a confirmation as we wanted, closing above the 8 Moving average line and 20 Moving average line added some reassurance.
Bottom Half Analysis
For a second day we continue to see the same discrepancy between the MACD and RSI lines.
The MACD still appears to show the Green line starting a curl up, with hopes of surpassing the Red line in the coming days. The Green line is somewhat flat instead of upward in slope, but at least we did not see a wild crash down.
The RSI; however, is trending down though the last days have been positive. We have echoed the potential worry this shows because it may be difficult to keep an upward trend with low momentum from the RSI.
None the less, let us hope the MACD is the indicator that matters more here for another day!
Hourly Analysis
For the first time in a few trading days, we actually saw a positive start to the morning with an opening green candle.
However, it seems the the 100 Moving Average line in blue was a bit too strong to overpass.
From there, it actually seems the hours were simply following the 50 Moving Average line in red.
It was not until the 8 Moving Average was able to lift the last hour a bit to close positive.
You can really see here how the Moving Averages can be used to guide the day’s hourly trades.
Final Thoughts and Targets
With today’s daily candle closing above the 8 Moving average and 20 Moving average lines, there is hope that tomorrow we continue what seems to be break of the previous downtrend.
The dreidel-looking candle as well as the lower-than-ideal RSI indicator does add a bit of hesitation to an otherwise positive analysis
If the day goes well, the goal will be to close at or above the 50% of the big red candle six trading days ago - marked roughly by the white horizontal line.
If the day goes poorly, the downtrend may not actually be over and this was simply a few day fake-out
Here is hoping we curve upward!
Good luck trading!
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